Divergent Demographic and Regional Incidence Trends in Young Oral Cavity Cancer

Sunday, October 18, 2026

10:12 AM - 10:18 AM PT

Location: West Exhibit Hall A, Learning Zone 3

Presenting Author(s)

AZ

Ahmed Isam Zabiba, BS

Medical Student
University of California, Davis, School of Medicine
Sacramento, California, United States
AZ

Ahmed Isam Zabiba, BS

Medical Student
University of California, Davis, School of Medicine
Sacramento, California, United States

Co-Author(s)

AM

Amjad Mansour, BS

Medical Student
University of California, Davis, School of Medicine, United States
AM

Amjad Mansour, BS

Medical Student
University of California, Davis, School of Medicine, United States
JD

Jasmin Dominguez Cervantes, BS

Medical Student
Universitry of California, Davis, United States
JD

Jasmin Dominguez Cervantes, BS

Medical Student
Universitry of California, Davis, United States
MA

Malek Ajam, BS

Medical Student
University of California, Davis, School of Medicine, United States
MA

Malek Ajam, BS

Medical Student
University of California, Davis, School of Medicine, United States
AS

Anastasiya Stasyuk, MD

Resident Physician
University of California, Davis, United States
AS

Anastasiya Stasyuk, MD

Resident Physician
University of California, Davis, United States

Senior Author(s)

Andrew C. Birkeland, MD

Associate Professor
UC Davis Department of Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery
Sacramento, CA, United States
Andrew C. Birkeland, MD

Associate Professor
UC Davis Department of Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery
Sacramento, CA, United States

Introduction: The epidemiology of head and neck cancer (HNC) among young adults has shifted over recent decades, with overall declining incidence. However, it’s unclear if these trends are consistent across anatomical subsites and demographic groups. We aimed to analyze temporal trends in young-onset oral cavity cancer incidence in the United States and to examine demographic and geographic differences.

Methods: This population-based cohort study used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR). Incident cases of HNC diagnosed between 2000 and 2022 were identified, with analyses focused on individuals aged < 45 years. Age-adjusted incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) were estimated using Poisson regression models.

Results: The overall incidence of young-onset HNC declined significantly by 1.15% per year from 2001 to 2022 (p < 0.001). In contrast, young oral cavity cancer incidence remained stable over the study period. This apparent stability masked significant demographic heterogeneity. Oral cavity cancer incidence increased among Asian or Pacific Islander, Hispanic, and White patients (APC +2.9%, +0.9%, and +0.3%, respectively; p< 0.001), while rates declined among Black patients (APC −2.8%; p< 0.001). Incidence increased significantly among females (APC +0.7%; p< 0.001). Regionally, oral cavity cancer incidence was approximately 9% higher in the Midwest compared to the West, while temporal trends did not differ significantly across geographic regions. Incidence was also 3.6% lower in metropolitan areas compared with rural areas (IRR 0.96; p< 0.001).

Conclusions: Although oral cavity cancer incidence among young adults has remained stable in the United States, this pattern conceals divergent demographic trends, including rising incidence among females and several racial groups. These findings raise concern that oral cavity cancer may not be benefiting from the broader declines in HNC and underscore the need for targeted prevention and surveillance strategies.